Do you expect a Tax Refund this year, or do you think you will owe Taxes?

A Simple Question That Most People Are Afraid to Ask

Every tax season starts with the same million-dollar question. Will you get money back, or will you write a check to the IRS?

For many taxpayers, the answer is not obvious until well after they file. And this year is especially tricky because of changes involving the new OBBB deductions, new credit limits, and new withholding rules.

Why the Answer Matters This Year

Whether you expect a refund or owe taxes determines how you plan your finances for the year. In 2026, small changes in withholding or credits could mean thousands of dollars either added to or subtracted from your refund.

This year is different because:

credits changed under OBBB
Senior deductions increased
Work-related deductions expanded
Payroll withholding formulas changed
Many software programs have not updated yet

If you are not sure where you stand, the safest plan is to check early instead of being surprised later.

Refund or Tax Bill: What Signals Should You Look For?

Signs You Will Get a Refund

your employer withheld higher taxes this year
you qualify for refundable credits
you paid estimated taxes during the year
your income dropped compared to 2024
you qualify for new deductions such as Overtime or Tips

Signs You May Owe Taxes

you claimed fewer allowances on your W-4
you switched to self-employment
you withdrew retirement funds
you claimed large deductions last year you will not get again
you are claiming reduced child tax benefits

Refunds are Changing This Year

This filing season looks very different from the past few years. Many taxpayers will receive larger refunds because of the new deductions, while others will owe because their withholding was not adjusted.

Two taxpayers with almost identical income could have completely different results depending on:

W-4 changes
new OBBB credits
work-related deductions
senior benefits
childcare and education credits

Should You Change Your Withholding Right Now?

If you usually get a big refund, you might be over-withholding.
If you usually owe money, you might be under-withholding.

Updating your W-4 today can help increase your paycheck or avoid a tax bill later. Most people never adjust their withholding, and that is why they are surprised every April.