A Simple Question That Most People Are Afraid to Ask
Every tax season starts with the same million-dollar question. Will you get money back, or will you write a check to the IRS?
For many taxpayers, the answer is not obvious until well after they file. And this year is especially tricky because of changes involving the new OBBB deductions, new credit limits, and new withholding rules.
Why the Answer Matters This Year
Whether you expect a refund or owe taxes determines how you plan your finances for the year. In 2026, small changes in withholding or credits could mean thousands of dollars either added to or subtracted from your refund.
This year is different because:
- credits changed under OBBB
- Senior deductions increased
- Work-related deductions expanded
- Payroll withholding formulas changed
- Many software programs have not updated yet
If you are not sure where you stand, the safest plan is to check early instead of being surprised later.
Refund or Tax Bill: What Signals Should You Look For?
Signs You Will Get a Refund
- your employer withheld higher taxes this year
- you qualify for refundable credits
- you paid estimated taxes during the year
- your income dropped compared to 2024
- you qualify for new deductions such as Overtime or Tips
Signs You May Owe Taxes
- you claimed fewer allowances on your W-4
- you switched to self-employment
- you withdrew retirement funds
- you claimed large deductions last year you will not get again
- you are claiming reduced child tax benefits
Refunds are Changing This Year
This filing season looks very different from the past few years. Many taxpayers will receive larger refunds because of the new deductions, while others will owe because their withholding was not adjusted.
Two taxpayers with almost identical income could have completely different results depending on:
- W-4 changes
- new OBBB credits
- work-related deductions
- senior benefits
- childcare and education credits
Should You Change Your Withholding Right Now?
If you usually get a big refund, you might be over-withholding.
If you usually owe money, you might be under-withholding.
Updating your W-4 today can help increase your paycheck or avoid a tax bill later. Most people never adjust their withholding, and that is why they are surprised every April.
What About You?
Now it is time for your answer.
Do you expect a tax refund this year, or do you think you will owe taxes?
Tell us below:
- Refund
- Owe
- Not sure
Share your answer in the comments and explain why you think so. Every year, the refund conversation helps thousands of taxpayers compare situations and learn from each other.
